Professor Alan Maynard OBE looks at the upward drivers on healthcare demand, and predicts some patterns of probable NHS behaviour in response

The fate of healthcare funding and the NHS is unclear. Despite the rhetoric of decades, there is little evidence that community care is cheaper or more efficient. With patient demand for care continuing to increase, community care may be no solution.

The usual explanations of increased patient demand are technology, an ageing society and patient expectations. Let’s review each of these.

Worthy innovation?

It's a depressing subject, is health inequality. We get worked up about it once a year, or whenever Michael Marmot publishes something, and broadly speaking, de-prioritise it the rest of the time.

The Guardian have this report of Conservative leader David Cameron's presentation to the TED (Technology - Entertainment - Design) conference today.

You will notice that the influence of Thaler and Sunstein on his thinking has not abated. That more choice drives equality - which will come as news to the morbidly obese, compulsive gamblers and alcoholics everywhere.

This interview with Sir Robert Naylor in today's Guardian is quite fun. He clearly feels like having a bit of a push at opponents of healthcare reform in London.

Interesting timing, I'd say. Bob The Builder's blueprint for a more open discussion of capital healthcare provision certainly won't be viewed as a capital crime. There aren't many fireproof chief executives, but he's one of them.

A good story here from Pulse on the potential savings in London from 'polysystems'. Or rather, the potential lack of them.

As I've previously blogged already today, double-running costs are just not going to be viable. NHS London has realised that the hearty and well-established nettle of London healthcare reform has got to be grasped.

The NHS Confederation’s impressive policy salon series launched itself into 2010 with gusto: its January iteration looking at the hardy perennial issue of variations of supply and cost.

The main speaker of Variation of supply and cost – higher quality with fewer resources was a visiting US academic expert, involved in the production of the leading ‘blble’ on healthcare variation in the USA.

So on Sunday Gordon Brown told The Observer what he was going to say in his Kings Fund speech yesterday.

Then he said it.

It included, "In the next few years - and because of our decisions on national insurance - we are committed to maintaining real term spending on the front line services of the NHS"

The ubiquitous Guido Fawkes has posted the address of the Parliamentary online listing of what rooms MPs have booked for events in the Commons.

On a quick scan,

Andy Burnham
06/07/2009 Newspaper Conference Lunch (16) Astor Suite

Andrew Lansley
18/05/2004 Coalition For Medical Progress Reception (100) Strangers Dining Room
25/05/2004 TBC - Reception (100) Terrace Pavilion
20/09/2004 University of Exeter Reception (75) Dining Room A
22/09/2004 Westawaygillis Dinner (170) Members Dining Room, Terrace Pavilion

Here you go. It looks as if James Meikle got it just about all right.

Good morning.

Today's sermon will be from the launch of the new document by Norman Lamb MP, Lib Dem health spokesman. If you want to get ahead of the game, read this opinion piece in today's Guardian.

The pamphlet, The NHS - a liberal vision, sets out five broad guiding principles:
1. a fundamental shift away from central bureaucratic control to local accountability and responsibility